As the beginning of the MLB season quickly approaches, there is a question that emerges from most informed Mariners fans: will they be as bad as they seem on paper? Let's be honest, ALL of our off-season moves were the laughing stock of the baseball community. Dealing Soriano, our only promising reliever not named Putz, was a terrible move. Getting Jose Guillen, who is as impatient and wild at the plate as he is in the clubhouse, was a disasterous move. 5 mil a year for 36-year-old Miguel Batista? 8+ mil a year for Jeff Weaver? His ERA was almost 6 last year! Vidro? VIDRO?!?
I tried at one point to justify our moves as short-term solutions that will help us this year, which may convince Ichiro to resign. But anyone with half a brain can see that our off-season moves have not helped us for this year or any year.
Sports Illustrated had us as finishing fourth in the A.L. West in their MLB season preview. The "experts" at ESPN were a little kinder, though on average, they predicted 76.7 wins for the Mariners.
Are the Mariners destined to finish last in the division again? Possibly, and it's nearly impossible to argue against. Luckily, our division is mediocre (the Angels aren't as good as everyone predicts) so there always is some hope. It's possible that we'd only need 85-87 wins to claim the division, and if everything goes right and then some (i.e. we never have to play Oakland because of a scheduling error), we might have a the slimmest chance of making a run at it. And if we get into the playoffs, anything is possible.
Honestly, what do I think will happen? Not sure. Probably a win count in the 70s, a fired Hargrove (finally) and a departed Ichiro (unless we resign him for a billion dollars).
Saturday, March 31, 2007
Fantasy Baseball advice, and Baseball Predictions
So I've done 4 Fantasy Baseball Drafts already, and don't plan on doing any more, so I think I can give out some advice and predictions.
For the rules, I usually play in leagues that are not 5X5, because I think OBP, Slugging, and Fielding % are important. For pitching, I think Holds are important because it represents a real team, and I also have K ratios like K/9 or K/BB. I also play with LF, CF, RF because I wouldn't think Manny would want to play in Center. The problem with this is that Ichiro could play LF if he wanted to, but why would you want to play him there? It's like playing Reyes at 1b because you have two SS's and no 1b.
Catcher:
If you're not getting a Mauer, Martinez, or McCann, you might as well hold off til the end. I don't really weight catchers much after this because they just don't contribute that much.
Sleepers: Paulino on Pittsburgh, Coste on Philadelphia, and Ianetta on Colorado. All three have chance to get .300 with 10 hrs which is great late in the draft. For a non-prospect sleeper, Johnny Estrada is not a bad pickup, and for a guy who's going later than he should, Piazza might be a good pickup as well.
First Baseman:
Obviously this has the best guys at the top, but it is also the deepest, so if you don't get a Pujols, DLee, Howard, Tex, Morneau, or Berkman, I'd rather just wait later for guys who are going later like Adrian Gonzalez, Conor Jackson, or Lyle Overbay. For a guy to not draft, but keep an eye on, I'd look for Ryan Shealy or Casey Kotchman.
Second Baseman:
After Chase Utley, I wouldn't really take a guy early unless Cano falls. I'm a big fan of Kendrick, and usually take him in the 6th round or so. I'm pretty sure he'll hit .310 10 hr 20 sb, since he is athletic, and hit 370 in the Minors. After that, I'd just wait because you can always get guys like Jose Lope, Ian Kinsler, Jose Vidro, Luis Castillo, or Jorge Cantu late.
Third Baseman:
Possibly just as deep as 1b, but not as deep at the top, as the cream consists of A-Rod, DWright, and Miguel Cabrera. I love this position because I saw Melvin Mora and Joe Crede taken in the 16th round. And I didn't even take a 3b yet, I took Chad Tracy in the 17th round. The sleepers I love are Alex Gordon, and Mark Teahen, both Royals. I think they'll both have numbers around 290 25 hr and 20 sb with 90 rbis each. Not on draft radar's, but someone to think about is Kevin Kouzmanoff, who had a great spring training, and could be great all season.
Shortstop:
Deeper up top than it used to be with Reyes up in first, and then a slew of good ones in Jeter, Tejada, Rollins, and Hanley Ramirez. I'm pretty big on Hanley, because his stats are almost identical to Reyes' last year and he's taken some 40 picks later. I'm also really big on Carlos Guillen, who went 20 20 last year and had the highest OPS of all SS, though for some reason, Fantasy "Experts" rank him the 11th best SS after Bill Hall and Felipe Lopez. I'm also a big believer in Stephen Drew and Troy Tulowitzki.
DH:
Ortiz is a 1b is Yahoo! but a DH in ESPN. Nevertheless, I think he's being draft too low, because he has just as good of numbers as Howard, because he's doing it for more years, and if he didn't miss games last year, he would exactly as good. Hafner, I think is also a definite 2nd round pick. His had 42 hr last year and he didn't play a full season as usual. If he could get a full season, he'd be Ortiz, but he hasn't done it yet, so I drop him to the middle of the 2nd round.
Left Fielder:
Soriano and Crawford are the cream of the crop. Soriano is a bit overrated, and not as good in non 5x5 leagues, and Crawford is basically Reyes in LF, so he's not as good, but fairly good. LF as whole is not as deep as people think. After those two you have Manny, who is being underrated for a guy who hit .320 and 35 last year, and then Carlos Lee, Jason Bay, and Matt Holliday, all great guys to have because they have good numbers and double digit on SBs. Markakis will have a great year I think, and Bonds is probably being rated low. Sure he won't play more than 130 games, but he will probably get 280 400 550 oand 28 or so hr at worst.
Center Fielder:
Beltran is a bit overrated I think, though he might get more SBs, his average has never been great. Markakis is eligible for all OF positions so he might be a good option here too. I'm real big on Willy Taveras, because he'll hit in front of good hitters, hit in Coors, and have a lot of SBs I think. Chris B. Young would be a good late pickup too, since he'll probably go 270 15 25, and same for Shane Victorino.
Right Fielder:
I think Dye is going being underrated a bit here, he won't repeat last year, but he won't implode all of a sudden because of old age. Sheffield is also underrated, I expect him to be out to prove something and hitting in the middle of a potent Detroit lineup will do him good. Brad Hawpe is also a great late pickup, because I think he'll do even better than last year, and no one seemed to notice how good his last year was. Carlos Quentin was on people's radar but after his horrid ST, I'd say don't draft him, he's a wait and see player. I'm pretty high on Jose Guillen, he's got something to prove, and he's tearing it up in Spring Training (along with Raul Ibanez and Beltre). Reed Johnson wouldn't be bad for a backup OF too, he has a good average, and plays all the OF positions. For super Sleepers, I'd say pick Chris Snelling, a M's Fan favorite. He's doing real well in ST.
Starting Pitchers:
After Santana I'd rank it Oswalt and Carpenter tied, then Peavy and Halladay, then Felix, Matsuzaka, and Bonderman. Unless you get an elite pitcher, I like to take pitchers later. Some sleepers are Chuck James, Bartolo Colon, Eric Bedard, Kei Igawa, Rich Harden (who's having an amazing spring and looks healthy, same as Ben Sheets but 100 picks later), Ian Snell, and Tim Hudson (Not back to Cy Young form, but definetley back on track, a good buy low candidate). For super sleeper prospects, Phil Huges, Homer Bailey, and Mike Pelfrey are good bets, as are Tim Lincecum, Andrew Miller, and Adam Miller.
Closers:
The best closers are amazing, helping in tons of categories including, K's, WHIP, ERA, and IP. Nathan is the best, though he doesn't get the most saves, followed closely by K-Rod, Street, BJ Ryan, Wagner, and then Rivera. Others just below this are Papelbon, Putz, Hoffman, and Cordero. This year, there doesn't seem to be many undecided closer who'll be lights out, so I'd put a premium on elite closers this year. Get a sure thing instead of a guy who'll just get you saves for half a season who drags down your ERA and WHIP.
Relief Pitchers:
Atlanta did a good job getting setup pitching, and Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano would be a good bet to close once the Braves realize Wickman sucks. Gagne is sure to get injured (I think he already is), so definitely pick up Otsuka who was lights out last year and in the WBC. For the Dodgers, I'd get both Broxton and Saito, both of whom were lights out. For setup men, I'd get perrenial all-stars Rincon, Shields, or Linebrink, and then a Pat Neshek-type. The Twins have a ton of great relief pitching, as to the Angels and A's, so get their guys, and just get teams that have a lot of leads.
Predictions:
AL MVP: 1. Vlad Guerrero 2. Ortiz 3. A-Rod
I think if Weaver and Colon get back, the Angel's will be good, especially if they get the production from their prospects like I expect. Vlad will win this with his great numbers. Ortiz will put up a typically good year, but will fall just short becuase there's always going to be a guy who's just as good, and actually plays defense. A-Rod will be rejuvinated this year, but it's hard giving it to a guy who has 12 all-stars on his team.
NL MVP: 1. Albert Pujols 2. Ryan Howard 3. David Wright
Pujols is so consistent, and I think his team will win the division easily this year. Howard will put up great numbers again, but if he barely won with 58 hr, he's not going to win with 50 hr, even if he does get 180 walks. Wright will finally put together a full year and either put up a 335 average of 40 hrs.
AL Cy Young: 1. Johan Santana 2. Rich Harden 3. Daisuke Matsuzaka 4. Jeremy Bonderman
I'm not putting John Lackey, because I hate him and he's ugly. Santana won the triple crown last year so... picking him is a no brainer. He also should have 3 in a row right now. Harden is looking amazing in spring training and I think he's one of the best pitchers if he's healthy. Matsuzaka will mistify hitters with his new pitches and will have a lot of wins. Bonderman is also a nice pick to make. Not sure how many wins Felix will have because of our offense.
NL Cy Young: 1. Roy Oswalt 2. Cris Carpenter 3. John Smoltz 4. Carlos Zambrano
Oswalt has been one of the top pitchers for a while now, and though his K's have been declining, I think his new changeup will keep his hitters honest. Carpenter is also developing a changeup, but I think Oswalt will just have a better season if ever so slightly. Smoltz is looking in top form, and looks to lead the Braves to a wild card spot which would get him heavy consideration. Zambrano is in a contract year, but I've never been a huge fan.
AL Rookie of the year: 1. Alex Gordon 2. Daisuke Matsuzaka 3. Delmon Young
For the second year in a row, the rookies will be amazing, no Angel Berroa crap. Gordon will hit 290 25 20 and save the Royals from being the most pathetic team. Matsuzaka will do better but will lose some votes because of his questionable rookie status. Delmon Young will do well, but by not being the best player on his team, he will look like less of a star. His low BB rate is also a problem.
NL Rookie of the year: 1. Kevin Kouzmanoff 2. Troy Tulowitzki 3. Chris B. Young
Kouzmanoff is hitting Adrian Gonzalez-like in ST, and looks to hit 280 with 25 hrs, great for his park. Tulowitzki will hit 300 with 15 15. Young will be 20 20, but I have a hard time seeing him hit higher than 275. I'm not sure if Stephen Drew is a rookie, if he is, then he'll be pretty high up, as I think he'll hit 300 with 10 hr and 20 sb.
Al Teams in the playoffs: NL Teams in playoffs:
1. Yankees 1. Mets
2. Tigers 2. Cardinals
3. Angels 3. Dodgers
WC. Red Sox (I can see Twins) WC. Phillies (I can see Padres or Braves)
Angels over Yanks, Red Sox over Tigers
Mets over Dodgers, Cardinals over Phillies
Angels over Red Sox, Mets over Cardinals
Angels over Mets
I'd say Angels over Yanks because I like their front line starters more. I think Lackey, Colon, Weaver, Santana will be a great lineup. I use the same thing for the Red Sox. They have Matsuzaka and Schilling, which trump Bonderman and Verlander, if ever so slightly. And I see the lineup in the Red Sox being more consistent with their OBP.
Mets over Dodgers becasue I feel the Mets are the best team in the NL, and Cardinals over Phillies, because Phillies have good pitching depth now, but no front line pitchers.
I like the Angels over the Red Sox because I like their bullpen a lot better. Shields, Speier, and K-Rod is just as good as Lowe, Soriano, Putz was last year. I also think Kotchman will have a good year. I picked Mets oves over Cards because I don't think the Cardinals have enough bats to make it to the World Series. Pujols and Rolen are great, but with no one else really, defense nad pitching will only get them so far.
Angels over Mets because the Angels have better pitching on all accounts. Pelfrey will be good by now, but I like the Angels all-around team. The only fault for the Angels is if Colon never puts it together, and Weaver has a sophomore slump, but Colon threw 94 mph recently, and with Escobar in the bullpen for the playoffs, this team is even better.
For the rules, I usually play in leagues that are not 5X5, because I think OBP, Slugging, and Fielding % are important. For pitching, I think Holds are important because it represents a real team, and I also have K ratios like K/9 or K/BB. I also play with LF, CF, RF because I wouldn't think Manny would want to play in Center. The problem with this is that Ichiro could play LF if he wanted to, but why would you want to play him there? It's like playing Reyes at 1b because you have two SS's and no 1b.
Catcher:
If you're not getting a Mauer, Martinez, or McCann, you might as well hold off til the end. I don't really weight catchers much after this because they just don't contribute that much.
Sleepers: Paulino on Pittsburgh, Coste on Philadelphia, and Ianetta on Colorado. All three have chance to get .300 with 10 hrs which is great late in the draft. For a non-prospect sleeper, Johnny Estrada is not a bad pickup, and for a guy who's going later than he should, Piazza might be a good pickup as well.
First Baseman:
Obviously this has the best guys at the top, but it is also the deepest, so if you don't get a Pujols, DLee, Howard, Tex, Morneau, or Berkman, I'd rather just wait later for guys who are going later like Adrian Gonzalez, Conor Jackson, or Lyle Overbay. For a guy to not draft, but keep an eye on, I'd look for Ryan Shealy or Casey Kotchman.
Second Baseman:
After Chase Utley, I wouldn't really take a guy early unless Cano falls. I'm a big fan of Kendrick, and usually take him in the 6th round or so. I'm pretty sure he'll hit .310 10 hr 20 sb, since he is athletic, and hit 370 in the Minors. After that, I'd just wait because you can always get guys like Jose Lope, Ian Kinsler, Jose Vidro, Luis Castillo, or Jorge Cantu late.
Third Baseman:
Possibly just as deep as 1b, but not as deep at the top, as the cream consists of A-Rod, DWright, and Miguel Cabrera. I love this position because I saw Melvin Mora and Joe Crede taken in the 16th round. And I didn't even take a 3b yet, I took Chad Tracy in the 17th round. The sleepers I love are Alex Gordon, and Mark Teahen, both Royals. I think they'll both have numbers around 290 25 hr and 20 sb with 90 rbis each. Not on draft radar's, but someone to think about is Kevin Kouzmanoff, who had a great spring training, and could be great all season.
Shortstop:
Deeper up top than it used to be with Reyes up in first, and then a slew of good ones in Jeter, Tejada, Rollins, and Hanley Ramirez. I'm pretty big on Hanley, because his stats are almost identical to Reyes' last year and he's taken some 40 picks later. I'm also really big on Carlos Guillen, who went 20 20 last year and had the highest OPS of all SS, though for some reason, Fantasy "Experts" rank him the 11th best SS after Bill Hall and Felipe Lopez. I'm also a big believer in Stephen Drew and Troy Tulowitzki.
DH:
Ortiz is a 1b is Yahoo! but a DH in ESPN. Nevertheless, I think he's being draft too low, because he has just as good of numbers as Howard, because he's doing it for more years, and if he didn't miss games last year, he would exactly as good. Hafner, I think is also a definite 2nd round pick. His had 42 hr last year and he didn't play a full season as usual. If he could get a full season, he'd be Ortiz, but he hasn't done it yet, so I drop him to the middle of the 2nd round.
Left Fielder:
Soriano and Crawford are the cream of the crop. Soriano is a bit overrated, and not as good in non 5x5 leagues, and Crawford is basically Reyes in LF, so he's not as good, but fairly good. LF as whole is not as deep as people think. After those two you have Manny, who is being underrated for a guy who hit .320 and 35 last year, and then Carlos Lee, Jason Bay, and Matt Holliday, all great guys to have because they have good numbers and double digit on SBs. Markakis will have a great year I think, and Bonds is probably being rated low. Sure he won't play more than 130 games, but he will probably get 280 400 550 oand 28 or so hr at worst.
Center Fielder:
Beltran is a bit overrated I think, though he might get more SBs, his average has never been great. Markakis is eligible for all OF positions so he might be a good option here too. I'm real big on Willy Taveras, because he'll hit in front of good hitters, hit in Coors, and have a lot of SBs I think. Chris B. Young would be a good late pickup too, since he'll probably go 270 15 25, and same for Shane Victorino.
Right Fielder:
I think Dye is going being underrated a bit here, he won't repeat last year, but he won't implode all of a sudden because of old age. Sheffield is also underrated, I expect him to be out to prove something and hitting in the middle of a potent Detroit lineup will do him good. Brad Hawpe is also a great late pickup, because I think he'll do even better than last year, and no one seemed to notice how good his last year was. Carlos Quentin was on people's radar but after his horrid ST, I'd say don't draft him, he's a wait and see player. I'm pretty high on Jose Guillen, he's got something to prove, and he's tearing it up in Spring Training (along with Raul Ibanez and Beltre). Reed Johnson wouldn't be bad for a backup OF too, he has a good average, and plays all the OF positions. For super Sleepers, I'd say pick Chris Snelling, a M's Fan favorite. He's doing real well in ST.
Starting Pitchers:
After Santana I'd rank it Oswalt and Carpenter tied, then Peavy and Halladay, then Felix, Matsuzaka, and Bonderman. Unless you get an elite pitcher, I like to take pitchers later. Some sleepers are Chuck James, Bartolo Colon, Eric Bedard, Kei Igawa, Rich Harden (who's having an amazing spring and looks healthy, same as Ben Sheets but 100 picks later), Ian Snell, and Tim Hudson (Not back to Cy Young form, but definetley back on track, a good buy low candidate). For super sleeper prospects, Phil Huges, Homer Bailey, and Mike Pelfrey are good bets, as are Tim Lincecum, Andrew Miller, and Adam Miller.
Closers:
The best closers are amazing, helping in tons of categories including, K's, WHIP, ERA, and IP. Nathan is the best, though he doesn't get the most saves, followed closely by K-Rod, Street, BJ Ryan, Wagner, and then Rivera. Others just below this are Papelbon, Putz, Hoffman, and Cordero. This year, there doesn't seem to be many undecided closer who'll be lights out, so I'd put a premium on elite closers this year. Get a sure thing instead of a guy who'll just get you saves for half a season who drags down your ERA and WHIP.
Relief Pitchers:
Atlanta did a good job getting setup pitching, and Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano would be a good bet to close once the Braves realize Wickman sucks. Gagne is sure to get injured (I think he already is), so definitely pick up Otsuka who was lights out last year and in the WBC. For the Dodgers, I'd get both Broxton and Saito, both of whom were lights out. For setup men, I'd get perrenial all-stars Rincon, Shields, or Linebrink, and then a Pat Neshek-type. The Twins have a ton of great relief pitching, as to the Angels and A's, so get their guys, and just get teams that have a lot of leads.
Predictions:
AL MVP: 1. Vlad Guerrero 2. Ortiz 3. A-Rod
I think if Weaver and Colon get back, the Angel's will be good, especially if they get the production from their prospects like I expect. Vlad will win this with his great numbers. Ortiz will put up a typically good year, but will fall just short becuase there's always going to be a guy who's just as good, and actually plays defense. A-Rod will be rejuvinated this year, but it's hard giving it to a guy who has 12 all-stars on his team.
NL MVP: 1. Albert Pujols 2. Ryan Howard 3. David Wright
Pujols is so consistent, and I think his team will win the division easily this year. Howard will put up great numbers again, but if he barely won with 58 hr, he's not going to win with 50 hr, even if he does get 180 walks. Wright will finally put together a full year and either put up a 335 average of 40 hrs.
AL Cy Young: 1. Johan Santana 2. Rich Harden 3. Daisuke Matsuzaka 4. Jeremy Bonderman
I'm not putting John Lackey, because I hate him and he's ugly. Santana won the triple crown last year so... picking him is a no brainer. He also should have 3 in a row right now. Harden is looking amazing in spring training and I think he's one of the best pitchers if he's healthy. Matsuzaka will mistify hitters with his new pitches and will have a lot of wins. Bonderman is also a nice pick to make. Not sure how many wins Felix will have because of our offense.
NL Cy Young: 1. Roy Oswalt 2. Cris Carpenter 3. John Smoltz 4. Carlos Zambrano
Oswalt has been one of the top pitchers for a while now, and though his K's have been declining, I think his new changeup will keep his hitters honest. Carpenter is also developing a changeup, but I think Oswalt will just have a better season if ever so slightly. Smoltz is looking in top form, and looks to lead the Braves to a wild card spot which would get him heavy consideration. Zambrano is in a contract year, but I've never been a huge fan.
AL Rookie of the year: 1. Alex Gordon 2. Daisuke Matsuzaka 3. Delmon Young
For the second year in a row, the rookies will be amazing, no Angel Berroa crap. Gordon will hit 290 25 20 and save the Royals from being the most pathetic team. Matsuzaka will do better but will lose some votes because of his questionable rookie status. Delmon Young will do well, but by not being the best player on his team, he will look like less of a star. His low BB rate is also a problem.
NL Rookie of the year: 1. Kevin Kouzmanoff 2. Troy Tulowitzki 3. Chris B. Young
Kouzmanoff is hitting Adrian Gonzalez-like in ST, and looks to hit 280 with 25 hrs, great for his park. Tulowitzki will hit 300 with 15 15. Young will be 20 20, but I have a hard time seeing him hit higher than 275. I'm not sure if Stephen Drew is a rookie, if he is, then he'll be pretty high up, as I think he'll hit 300 with 10 hr and 20 sb.
Al Teams in the playoffs: NL Teams in playoffs:
1. Yankees 1. Mets
2. Tigers 2. Cardinals
3. Angels 3. Dodgers
WC. Red Sox (I can see Twins) WC. Phillies (I can see Padres or Braves)
Angels over Yanks, Red Sox over Tigers
Mets over Dodgers, Cardinals over Phillies
Angels over Red Sox, Mets over Cardinals
Angels over Mets
I'd say Angels over Yanks because I like their front line starters more. I think Lackey, Colon, Weaver, Santana will be a great lineup. I use the same thing for the Red Sox. They have Matsuzaka and Schilling, which trump Bonderman and Verlander, if ever so slightly. And I see the lineup in the Red Sox being more consistent with their OBP.
Mets over Dodgers becasue I feel the Mets are the best team in the NL, and Cardinals over Phillies, because Phillies have good pitching depth now, but no front line pitchers.
I like the Angels over the Red Sox because I like their bullpen a lot better. Shields, Speier, and K-Rod is just as good as Lowe, Soriano, Putz was last year. I also think Kotchman will have a good year. I picked Mets oves over Cards because I don't think the Cardinals have enough bats to make it to the World Series. Pujols and Rolen are great, but with no one else really, defense nad pitching will only get them so far.
Angels over Mets because the Angels have better pitching on all accounts. Pelfrey will be good by now, but I like the Angels all-around team. The only fault for the Angels is if Colon never puts it together, and Weaver has a sophomore slump, but Colon threw 94 mph recently, and with Escobar in the bullpen for the playoffs, this team is even better.
Thursday, March 29, 2007
Most Heartbreaking franchises on ESPN
So ESPN did an article on this, and all three Seattle Sports teams are on it, as well as the Vancouver Canucks. (http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=schoenfield/070328&lpos=spotlight&lid=tab6pos2)
The Sonics are 9th, Canucks are 10th, Seahawks are 14th, and the Mariners are 19th. (For some reason, this list stops at 46.
For the Sonics, the only soul-sucking moment we had was losing to Dikembe in the playoffs. I don't know, how about Kemp forcing his way out, then getting a Vin Baker who looked like something for one year and the totally sucking for the rest of his life? Or how about a guy nick-named Mr. Sonic leaving the organization for our "Rival" team.
For the Seahawks, they of course mentioned the Superbowl which I'm glad, and they kid that it's 14 blown calls, which I'm also glad for, because it was about that many calls, not just 3 as stupid people like to point out.
For the Mariners its of course the many years of futility and then our stars leaving, then the 116 game season where we couldn't even make it to the World Series.
For the Canucks, oddly enough, just the fact that they sucked a lot got them the 10 spot.
Anyways, its a good idea, and I'm glad that Seattle got its recognition, though Philly did get the 3,4, and 32 spots.
Comparison, 9+14+19 = 42, 3+4+32 = 39, so Philadelphia wins in this comparison. Oh well.
The Sonics are 9th, Canucks are 10th, Seahawks are 14th, and the Mariners are 19th. (For some reason, this list stops at 46.
For the Sonics, the only soul-sucking moment we had was losing to Dikembe in the playoffs. I don't know, how about Kemp forcing his way out, then getting a Vin Baker who looked like something for one year and the totally sucking for the rest of his life? Or how about a guy nick-named Mr. Sonic leaving the organization for our "Rival" team.
For the Seahawks, they of course mentioned the Superbowl which I'm glad, and they kid that it's 14 blown calls, which I'm also glad for, because it was about that many calls, not just 3 as stupid people like to point out.
For the Mariners its of course the many years of futility and then our stars leaving, then the 116 game season where we couldn't even make it to the World Series.
For the Canucks, oddly enough, just the fact that they sucked a lot got them the 10 spot.
Anyways, its a good idea, and I'm glad that Seattle got its recognition, though Philly did get the 3,4, and 32 spots.
Comparison, 9+14+19 = 42, 3+4+32 = 39, so Philadelphia wins in this comparison. Oh well.
Tuesday, March 27, 2007
Taking the Playoffs from Garnett
On the heels of Allen's exit and a clobbering at home from the Spurs, it's nice to see that the SuperSonics are still fighting (sort of). Three hours ago, they managed to outscore the Minnesota TimberWolves 35-12 in the fourth quarter and pull away with a 114-106 victory. The Supes are well out of the playoff picture, so frankly, all this win really means for them is fewer lottery balls, but as a true fan, I prefer that they honestly try to win every game rather than tank it and get a slightly better chance at Oden or Durant or whoever else.
The best part of the victory isn't just the proof that Lewis (35 points) is actually capable of taking over a game in the fourth (21 points in the quarter), but that the moronically run TimberWolves organization just had the final nail hammered into their playoff-hope coffin at 30-40.
I always thought Dwayne Casey was the brains of the Sonics coaching staff under McMillan, and it hurt to see him leave for Minny more than it did to see Nate go to Portland. Casey is an excellent coach who was burdened with a terrible team that is essentially just one superstar (sans leadership skills) forced to carry the Washington Generals. Unfortunately for Casey, he was no immediate miracle worker, and so he was prematurely fired.
Speaking of firing coaches, as soon as Bob Hill is canned at the end of the season, we should look into getting Casey if we can, and if not, Ted Miller from the P-I recommends we take a look at Phoenix Suns assistant coach Marc Iavaroni. I couldn't agree more. We are a run and gun team, and as long as we have Ray, Rashard and Luke playing the kind of matador defense they do, we'll need to stay that way. Why not get a guy from a system that knows how to play in that style with success?
Anyway, congrats on a good win for the Sonics, and hopefully it won't be necessary to come from 25 down to a team like the TimberWolves next season.
The best part of the victory isn't just the proof that Lewis (35 points) is actually capable of taking over a game in the fourth (21 points in the quarter), but that the moronically run TimberWolves organization just had the final nail hammered into their playoff-hope coffin at 30-40.
I always thought Dwayne Casey was the brains of the Sonics coaching staff under McMillan, and it hurt to see him leave for Minny more than it did to see Nate go to Portland. Casey is an excellent coach who was burdened with a terrible team that is essentially just one superstar (sans leadership skills) forced to carry the Washington Generals. Unfortunately for Casey, he was no immediate miracle worker, and so he was prematurely fired.
Speaking of firing coaches, as soon as Bob Hill is canned at the end of the season, we should look into getting Casey if we can, and if not, Ted Miller from the P-I recommends we take a look at Phoenix Suns assistant coach Marc Iavaroni. I couldn't agree more. We are a run and gun team, and as long as we have Ray, Rashard and Luke playing the kind of matador defense they do, we'll need to stay that way. Why not get a guy from a system that knows how to play in that style with success?
Anyway, congrats on a good win for the Sonics, and hopefully it won't be necessary to come from 25 down to a team like the TimberWolves next season.
2007 NFL Mock Draft 1st half of 1st Round
1. Oakland – JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU
I think this is a mistake, because I’m not a huge believer in him, but Al Davis apparently loves him, and they’re QB situation is horrible (though they could sign Trent Green or David Carr).
2. Detroit – Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame
They could trade down and get Quinn later maybe, but I feel like the QB situation with Kitna starting isn’t very good. Quinn has the pedigree, and he is apparently a combine freak with 25 reps on the bench press. Also a plus is that he has been in an “NFL-Type” offense for the last 2 years, and would be ready to start sooner.
3. Cleveland – Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma
They could go with Joe Thomas or Calvin Johnson, but I think their biggest need is a RB, because Reuben Droughns isn’t very good with a 3.4 YPC last year. They are fairly set at receiver with Edwards, Jurevicious, and Winslow Jr. I would like Peterson, but I think he has a lot of carries already on him, and he seems to get injured quite often, otherwise, he’s going to be good if he’s healthy for at least 5 seasons.
4. Tampa Bay – Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech
The number one overall rated player gets picked finally. I’m not sure that Tampa needs him with Galloway, Clayton, and Hilliard, but Galloway is getting old, and Clayton doesn’t seem to be the picture of health. He’s obviously a physical freak with a sub 4.4 40 yard time and the size of a TE at 6-5 225. He’s kind of like Randy Moss mixed with Terrell Owens, except he apparently has a great personality, quiet and humble. So what’s wrong with this kid? He didn’t dominate in college. He disappeared for a few games, which makes me think he’s not a great route runner, and he wasn’t as consistent as he should have been. If you’re that big and fast in college, you should be dominating CBs in college either by beating them deep, or just turning around in front of them and boxing them out for a jump ball. I think he’s going to be pretty good, but I don’t think he’s going to be great like most do.
5. Arizona – Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin
I think the top 5 picks are pretty much set in stone unless a trade happens. As it is, Arizona is thrilled with this, because their biggest need is O-line. With Joe Thomas anchoring the line, the rest of the offense can really get moving. Field Gulls tends to think he might be a bust because he doesn’t have a good 40 time or 10 yard speed burst, and he can only bench 225 lbs. 28 times. I agree with this because his technique is probably great, but the athleticism in college is very different from what he’ll experience in the NFL. I think he’ll be solid, but you need above average athleticism and amazing technique or amazing athleticism and above average technique to be a great LT in the NFL, and Thomas, while better than a Gallery, is just average in athleticism.
6. Washington - Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson
I wasn’t too high on this guy until the combine, where he proved to be a speedy DE running in the 4.5’s. He can play in either 3-4 or 4-3 sets, and the Redskins apparently were dead last in sacks last year, so a guy who averaged 11 sacks the last two years will certainly help them.
7. Minnesota – LaRon Landry, S, LSU
I have to say, I love this guy. He’s 6’2” 202 lbs and runs a sub 4.5 40. As a freshman he had 80 tackles, 3.5 for a loss, 3 sacks, 2 INTs, 4 passes deflected, and a blocked kick. His stats have stayed consistent over the years, but he has showed that he can play all the secondary positions. Basically he’s a great cover safety who can also play the line well. Minnesota doesn’t really need secondary help, but I can see him displacing Dwight Smith as a starter, or if not then playing both S positions and the nickel back position, while playing amazing special teams. That being said, the Vikings have no real need on defense except the safety position and LOLB, with Ben Leber. On offense they need a WR, so I could definitely see a trade down for Bob Meachem or Ted Ginn Jr.
8. Atlanta – Jamaal Anderson, DE, Arkansas
Atlanta needs to replace the void that Kerney’s departure makes, and Anderson is the perfect fit. Atlanta’s secondary wasn’t great last year, but it might have been due to lack of pressure. Their aren’t many good LB’s in this draft, so Anderson fills the need at this spot.
9. Miami – Alan Branch, DT, Michigan
This guy was a top 5 picks a few weeks ago, and I’m not sure why he dropped, because he is such an athletic specimen for a tackle and could conceivably play the end position for a 3-4 team like San Diego. Apparently they also like Adam Carricker, Levi Brown, or Ted Ginn Jr. so this is hard to predict because they have so many needs.
10. Houston – Levi Brown, OT, Penn State
Houston needs to solidify their line still, despite a great draft last year. This will allow Chris Spencer to move over to either LG or RG, his more natural position for an offensive line that is young, but solid throughout. This might be a bit of a reach, but I’ve seen him higher, and he is the only other O-Line that is guaranteed to go in the first round. They could go with Leon Hall, who was a sure-fire top 10 pick but then dropped as far as 25th pick when there were rumors that he was slow. Well, he ran a sub 4.4, but still hasn’t regained his hype as a shut down corner.
11. San Francisco – Ted Ginn Jr, WR, Ohio State
I don’t really like this pick, but I think they would be happy with Ginn, Meachem, or Dwayne Jarrett, so don’t be surprised if they trade down. That being said, they do have a lot of needs, so they could pick ILB Patrick Willis, or CB Leon Hall. I’m not a huge fan of Ginn personally, because I like consistent threats, not just vertical threats that make 4 catches a game. He’s also injured right now, so he hasn’t been able to work out, but there’s no doubt that he’s a physical freak.
12. Buffalo – Marshawn Lynch, RB, California
Before, this would have been Leon Hall or Amobi Okoye, but now that they have traded away McGahee, they need a RB. They also need a LB because they just traded Takeo Spikes away today, but there aren’t many great OLB in this draft, and now that they have a DT, they don’t need Okoye. I’m a big fan of Marshawn Lynch, he’s a physical specimen, and he had good numbers in college. I think this is a good pick to use on a RB, because you can have him for his prime 5 years while not paying him too much.
13. St. Louis – Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville
There seems to be a consensus on mock drafts that the Rams will choose a DT, and with Branch gone, Okoye is the obvious choice. He’s just 19, which could be a problem for the NFL right now, but he held his own as a 16 year old true freshman in college, so we’ll just have to wait and see. That being said, if he is really just 19, then his body could mature even more, and it’ll be amazing to see how good he can be. At the age of 19, most kids are just starting to play college football, so its obvious just how impressive this kid is. He also has a great work ethic apparently, so you won’t have to worry about him slacking off.
14. Carolina - Greg Olsen, TE, Miami
Not a great blocking TE, but he’s an amazing catching TE as proved by the skills challenge on ESPN. Not only this, but he was by far the best TE at the combine, with a blazing (for a TE if you’re not Vernon Davis) 4.51 40. That being said, he is just all projectibles and not actual numbers. I know college TE don’t have great numbers, but he only got 444 yards and 1 TD last year. He is 6’5” so that’s good for a QB like Delhomme, who has tunnel vision on his #1 WR, but he needs to gain a few pounds from the 255 he is currently at.
15. Pittsburgh – Leon Hall, CB, Michigan
They could go with Jarvis Moss, Patrick Willis, or Lawrence Timmons, because they need LB help now that Joey Porter is gone. They don’t have a strong CB core right now, and Ike Taylor bombed last year, so Leon Hall would be a perfect fit. I don’t think he’s a Champ Bailey or Chris McCalister, but he is comparable to a Marcus Trufant or Terence Newman.
Green Bay – Robert Meachem, WR, Tennessee
This is my favorite WR in the draft, in that he has great hands, and great athleticism. 1300 yards, 11 TDs, and under 4.4 40 yard dash. This may be a bit of a reach, but I think Green Bay wants to make Favre look good, and while WR don’t usually do well until year 3, it’ll be hard to pass up this guy, though I think they’d rather have Ted Ginn Jr. because Driver is a bit slow, and an extreme vertical threat is what they’d be looking for.
I think this is a mistake, because I’m not a huge believer in him, but Al Davis apparently loves him, and they’re QB situation is horrible (though they could sign Trent Green or David Carr).
2. Detroit – Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame
They could trade down and get Quinn later maybe, but I feel like the QB situation with Kitna starting isn’t very good. Quinn has the pedigree, and he is apparently a combine freak with 25 reps on the bench press. Also a plus is that he has been in an “NFL-Type” offense for the last 2 years, and would be ready to start sooner.
3. Cleveland – Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma
They could go with Joe Thomas or Calvin Johnson, but I think their biggest need is a RB, because Reuben Droughns isn’t very good with a 3.4 YPC last year. They are fairly set at receiver with Edwards, Jurevicious, and Winslow Jr. I would like Peterson, but I think he has a lot of carries already on him, and he seems to get injured quite often, otherwise, he’s going to be good if he’s healthy for at least 5 seasons.
4. Tampa Bay – Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech
The number one overall rated player gets picked finally. I’m not sure that Tampa needs him with Galloway, Clayton, and Hilliard, but Galloway is getting old, and Clayton doesn’t seem to be the picture of health. He’s obviously a physical freak with a sub 4.4 40 yard time and the size of a TE at 6-5 225. He’s kind of like Randy Moss mixed with Terrell Owens, except he apparently has a great personality, quiet and humble. So what’s wrong with this kid? He didn’t dominate in college. He disappeared for a few games, which makes me think he’s not a great route runner, and he wasn’t as consistent as he should have been. If you’re that big and fast in college, you should be dominating CBs in college either by beating them deep, or just turning around in front of them and boxing them out for a jump ball. I think he’s going to be pretty good, but I don’t think he’s going to be great like most do.
5. Arizona – Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin
I think the top 5 picks are pretty much set in stone unless a trade happens. As it is, Arizona is thrilled with this, because their biggest need is O-line. With Joe Thomas anchoring the line, the rest of the offense can really get moving. Field Gulls tends to think he might be a bust because he doesn’t have a good 40 time or 10 yard speed burst, and he can only bench 225 lbs. 28 times. I agree with this because his technique is probably great, but the athleticism in college is very different from what he’ll experience in the NFL. I think he’ll be solid, but you need above average athleticism and amazing technique or amazing athleticism and above average technique to be a great LT in the NFL, and Thomas, while better than a Gallery, is just average in athleticism.
6. Washington - Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson
I wasn’t too high on this guy until the combine, where he proved to be a speedy DE running in the 4.5’s. He can play in either 3-4 or 4-3 sets, and the Redskins apparently were dead last in sacks last year, so a guy who averaged 11 sacks the last two years will certainly help them.
7. Minnesota – LaRon Landry, S, LSU
I have to say, I love this guy. He’s 6’2” 202 lbs and runs a sub 4.5 40. As a freshman he had 80 tackles, 3.5 for a loss, 3 sacks, 2 INTs, 4 passes deflected, and a blocked kick. His stats have stayed consistent over the years, but he has showed that he can play all the secondary positions. Basically he’s a great cover safety who can also play the line well. Minnesota doesn’t really need secondary help, but I can see him displacing Dwight Smith as a starter, or if not then playing both S positions and the nickel back position, while playing amazing special teams. That being said, the Vikings have no real need on defense except the safety position and LOLB, with Ben Leber. On offense they need a WR, so I could definitely see a trade down for Bob Meachem or Ted Ginn Jr.
8. Atlanta – Jamaal Anderson, DE, Arkansas
Atlanta needs to replace the void that Kerney’s departure makes, and Anderson is the perfect fit. Atlanta’s secondary wasn’t great last year, but it might have been due to lack of pressure. Their aren’t many good LB’s in this draft, so Anderson fills the need at this spot.
9. Miami – Alan Branch, DT, Michigan
This guy was a top 5 picks a few weeks ago, and I’m not sure why he dropped, because he is such an athletic specimen for a tackle and could conceivably play the end position for a 3-4 team like San Diego. Apparently they also like Adam Carricker, Levi Brown, or Ted Ginn Jr. so this is hard to predict because they have so many needs.
10. Houston – Levi Brown, OT, Penn State
Houston needs to solidify their line still, despite a great draft last year. This will allow Chris Spencer to move over to either LG or RG, his more natural position for an offensive line that is young, but solid throughout. This might be a bit of a reach, but I’ve seen him higher, and he is the only other O-Line that is guaranteed to go in the first round. They could go with Leon Hall, who was a sure-fire top 10 pick but then dropped as far as 25th pick when there were rumors that he was slow. Well, he ran a sub 4.4, but still hasn’t regained his hype as a shut down corner.
11. San Francisco – Ted Ginn Jr, WR, Ohio State
I don’t really like this pick, but I think they would be happy with Ginn, Meachem, or Dwayne Jarrett, so don’t be surprised if they trade down. That being said, they do have a lot of needs, so they could pick ILB Patrick Willis, or CB Leon Hall. I’m not a huge fan of Ginn personally, because I like consistent threats, not just vertical threats that make 4 catches a game. He’s also injured right now, so he hasn’t been able to work out, but there’s no doubt that he’s a physical freak.
12. Buffalo – Marshawn Lynch, RB, California
Before, this would have been Leon Hall or Amobi Okoye, but now that they have traded away McGahee, they need a RB. They also need a LB because they just traded Takeo Spikes away today, but there aren’t many great OLB in this draft, and now that they have a DT, they don’t need Okoye. I’m a big fan of Marshawn Lynch, he’s a physical specimen, and he had good numbers in college. I think this is a good pick to use on a RB, because you can have him for his prime 5 years while not paying him too much.
13. St. Louis – Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville
There seems to be a consensus on mock drafts that the Rams will choose a DT, and with Branch gone, Okoye is the obvious choice. He’s just 19, which could be a problem for the NFL right now, but he held his own as a 16 year old true freshman in college, so we’ll just have to wait and see. That being said, if he is really just 19, then his body could mature even more, and it’ll be amazing to see how good he can be. At the age of 19, most kids are just starting to play college football, so its obvious just how impressive this kid is. He also has a great work ethic apparently, so you won’t have to worry about him slacking off.
14. Carolina - Greg Olsen, TE, Miami
Not a great blocking TE, but he’s an amazing catching TE as proved by the skills challenge on ESPN. Not only this, but he was by far the best TE at the combine, with a blazing (for a TE if you’re not Vernon Davis) 4.51 40. That being said, he is just all projectibles and not actual numbers. I know college TE don’t have great numbers, but he only got 444 yards and 1 TD last year. He is 6’5” so that’s good for a QB like Delhomme, who has tunnel vision on his #1 WR, but he needs to gain a few pounds from the 255 he is currently at.
15. Pittsburgh – Leon Hall, CB, Michigan
They could go with Jarvis Moss, Patrick Willis, or Lawrence Timmons, because they need LB help now that Joey Porter is gone. They don’t have a strong CB core right now, and Ike Taylor bombed last year, so Leon Hall would be a perfect fit. I don’t think he’s a Champ Bailey or Chris McCalister, but he is comparable to a Marcus Trufant or Terence Newman.
Green Bay – Robert Meachem, WR, Tennessee
This is my favorite WR in the draft, in that he has great hands, and great athleticism. 1300 yards, 11 TDs, and under 4.4 40 yard dash. This may be a bit of a reach, but I think Green Bay wants to make Favre look good, and while WR don’t usually do well until year 3, it’ll be hard to pass up this guy, though I think they’d rather have Ted Ginn Jr. because Driver is a bit slow, and an extreme vertical threat is what they’d be looking for.
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