Thursday, June 21, 2007

2007 NBA Mock Draft 1st Round+ 5

Draft is just a week away, and the Sonics have the 2nd overall pick, and the 1st and 5th pick in the 2nd round, so it's key to see who's available and who should go where. Here is my mock draft of what SHOULD happen given realism, I've also said what will probably happen if the picks are different.

Round 1

1. Portland C Greg Oden Ohio State
This pick is pretty obvious, I think they want to take Durant, but they'll take Oden just to be safe. That being said, I'd be glad to trade them the number 2 pick and something like Wilcox for Oden.

2. Seattle F Kevin Durant Texas
This pick is even more obvious, whoever Portland takes, the Sonics will take the other. Can't go wrong with either pick and I think that barring injury, both players will be top 25 of all time. Also, it just goes to show what the press can dig up when it has to, Oden might be "too injury prone" and Durant isn't athletic enough, though he is taller than 6'10" and has the biggest wingspan in the draft.

3. Atlanta PG Mike Conley Ohio State
What this team needs is a center and a point guard. Unfortunately, Hibbert pulled out, Hawes apparently doesn't deserve going this high, and neither does Mike Conley. So they go with the safest pick, Horford, who measured out as 6'10" and is the strongest guy in the draft. He got a lot of blocks, so he looks to be a good pick, but his upside is not as high as say, Brandan Wright (whom they should never draft because he's too much like Marvin Williams, weakish PF who showed potential as a freshman and UNC). They should pick Conley though, because I think he'll be Andre Miller at worst, and if he gets down his shooting, he could be as good as Chris Paul.

4. Memphis PF Al Horford Florida
Good worker, Jerry West kind of guy. They will take Conley if Horford is gone, but they only real strengths of the Grizz SF Gay, PF/C Gasol, and SG/SF Mike Miller. So it's either PF or PG. I think they go the safe route (though I'm not so sure Horford can't be the next Elton Brand) and pick up Horford.

5. Boston PF/C Joakim Noah Florida
I know, I'm not a fan, but he is a big tall dude who can do a lot of things well. A team with Delonte West, Pierce, Green, Jefferson, and Noah, is pretty formidable. The Celtics already have scoring, what they need is another presence inside, and a guy who can pass well for a big guy, and that's Noah perfectly. That being said they would've picked YiJianLian, but that would be career suicide for Ainge if he was wrong. I think they go the safe route and pick Brewer because they don't believe in Green for some reason. Brewer is a good pick though it leaves them a big man short (Perkins is garbage on offense, Gomes is an undersized rebounding machine in the form of a nice guy Fortson).

6. Milwaukee SF Corey Brewer Florida
They're "set" at SG, PF, and C with Redd, Villaneuva, and Bogut, and PG is too high for them to take, so it's between Jeff Green and Corey Brewer. Can't go wrong with either, but I think they go with Brewer Both are great two way players, Brewer is great and ball handling and has stepped up his outside shot, and Green has been the leader on Georgetown and can play inside and outside, either way, Milwaukee gets a great role player, not a star, but a guy that'll put up 16, 6,3 while playing top 15 (for a wing) defense.

7. Minnesota SF Jeff Green Georgetown
They'd do better with a great scoring wing, but Jeff Green is the best player available. Ideally, Foye is a SG and Davis is a SF, Foye can be the PG and Davis can be the SG. Another upside of Jeff Green is that along with Acie Law IV and of course the first two picks, he's possibly the most NBA ready and can put up Brandon Roy numbers right away. Brandan Wright could also be a good pick, but he's not as NBA-Ready.

8. Charlotte PF Brandan Wright UNC
If a good UNC guy is this late, they can't pas him up. Their 3 bigs, Sean May, Emeka Okafor, and Primoz Brezec, are oft-injured, so Wright would be a good pick here. If Gerald Wallace leaves, then Julian Wright, Thaddeus Young, Nick Young, or Al Thorton would be good picks as well.

9. Chicago C Spencer Hawes Washington
What does Chicago need? Inside scoring, who's the best at this in the entire draft? Spencer Hawes. Hawes can also pass well as shown by his 7 assists in his first college game, and he is a good shot blocker as well. He's a much safer pick than YiJianLian. Hawes has great inside moves, as shown in his Stanford game, he can make a 20 footer, but has an array of spin moves, and hook shots.

10. Sacramento PF YiJianLian China
After several years of playoff success, they've had trouble in the last few years. The Artest fiasco has been bad, they fired long time coach Rick Adelman, and they've been rumored to want to move out of Sacramento, so possible big-time international star is just what the doctor ordered. I think YJL will be good, but it may take a few years until he's an All-Star.

11. Atlanta PF/C Sean Williams Boston College
Since they already took their PG in Conley, all they need now is a center and the only ones left are Sean Williams and Jason Smith. Sean Williams was kicked off BC because of marijuana, but a lot of guys in the NBA smoke MJ, so I don't know if this'll be much of a negative against him. He had 5 blocks a game for BC and he's extremely athletic. Who would you take, a goofy white kid from Colorado State, or a athletic shot blocker from BC with upside? If they do take Horford with the 3rd pick, look for Acie Law IV or Javaris Crittendon. I think Javaris would be a big mistake, he has more upside, but I dont' think he's that good. Too much is made of the fact that he has upside, he's from Atlanta, and he's a tall PG. Acie Law has shown he can shoot and pass extremely well. He's at a perfect height too, 6-3, and could be a poor man's Nash.

12. Philadelphia SG Nick Young USC
The best thing the Sixers have is a pass first PG, and an athletic wing player. So with 4 athletic wing players available and not much else, they take the one who can score the best. Julian Wright, Thaddeus Young, and Al Thornton are all fine, but they're all projected at this point. Thorton is more polished, but Young can score in a variety of ways. Any of the four would be a fine pick however.

13. New Orleans SF Thaddeus Young Georgia Tech
I've heard of this guy for the last 5 years, so he must be good. He has more upside than the other two wings. NO would rather take Young in hopes that Peja come back, but that's doubtful. Young never really hit his stride in colelge, yet still put up decent numbers. He could be a future superstar, and I wouldn't be surprised if he went a lot higher.

14. LA Clippers PG Acie Law IV Texas A&M
I don't know what's wrong with him except he's a senior. He' 6-3, can shoot lights out, takes over the end of games, Cassell breaks down, and Livingston is breaking down. I don't know how you can be 6-7 170 and get injured, he puts no stress on his body, but he does. They could end up taking Thornton or Wright, making Magette even more expendable.

15. Detroit SG Rodney Stucky Eastern Washington
I like Stuckey, and I don't know why he's not ranked as high as Nick Young, and I don't know why Young isn't rated as high as Brewer. Apparently Detroit made Stuckey a promise. Stuckey is a great guard, he lit up Washington this year, and it was clear that he was a man amongst boys. He is a pretty good shooter, good slasher, and has a well built body. He is a bulldog on defense as well, and his only flaw is that he' 6-4, not 6-6, and he's not an amazing Kobe-like dunker, other than that, I think he's great.

16. Washington C Jason Smith Colorado State
The Wiz need a SG or a C, and because there are no SG except Morris Almond, they take Jason Smith. He's been remarkably consistent the last 2 years, at around 16, 9, 1.8. Of course the competition he faced was inferior and being in a mid major while being 7 feet shouldn't be that hard. The only real quality team he faced was Kansas state, and he did alright with 15 and 5, but it's hard to tell from one game.

17. New Jersey SF Julian Wright Kansas
Its hard to have him slip anymore than this. With VC possibly gone, Julian Wright is a great pick this late. He was clearly the best player on Kansas last year, and he has great athleticism. Even if VC stays, in the east, Julian Wright might be able to play PF a la Antwaan Jamison.

18. Golden State SF Al Thornton Florida State
Here's a team that doesn't really need anything. They have a great starting lineup of Davis, Richardson, Jackson, Harrington, Biedrins, with a great bench of Ellis, Barnes, Pietrius, Foyle, O'Bryant. So they can either go with most upside, or best available, and Thornton is a great trade piece, but he also allows the to trade Richardson if need be.

19. LA Lakers PG Javaris Crittenton Georgia Tech
The Kobe thing is still up in the air, but the Lakers have SG, SF, PF, and C locked down, they need a great point guard, but in the triangle system one that can shoot and defend is probably preferable than one who can pass and dribble extremely well. Crittenton is bar the best available, and he's a big PG in the Ron Harper mold. He's talented enough that he might just pique Kobe interest if LA gets a decent FA as well.

20. Miami PG Gabe Pruitt Georgia Tech
They don't need much, a PG and a SF, and Pruitt is the best PG available. I'm glad both him and Nick Young are ranked in the top 20, because people were saying they'd be early second round at first. Pruitt isn't a pure PG, which is fine with D-Wade on the team.

21. Philadelphia PF Josh McRoberts Duke
I don't know why he's dropped so low, ESPN seems to think Philly can take him with their 30th pick but I'm not too sure. Sure he got dominated by Hansbrough, who'll supposedly be a marginal NBA player, but he still had decent stats. He's still agile for a big man, and is a good shot blocker as well. He won't be a star, but he can be a number 3 player on a championship team possibly. Plus with three picks, Philly can be a bit risky and draft for upside.

22. Charlotte SG Morris Almond Rice
Assuming they get a big man in Brandan Wright, they really only need a SG, unless Gerald Wallace doesn't resign, in which case they might spend their money on Rashard Lewis though. It's between Almond and Bellini and since Charlotte doesn't seem too fond of foreign players, I'll take Almond. I think after their streak of only drafting players from college basketball powerhouses will end, and rightfully so, with Morrison.

23. New York SF Wilson Chandler Depaul
I don't know who this is, but Chad Ford says someone in the first round promised him something, so it's probably the Knicks. If it was a foreign player it might be the Spurs, but since its a relatively obscure one, its the Knicks. Chandler is aparently athletic and versatile, like most of the Knicks players, however they'll still be bad no matter what.

24. Phoenix SG Marco Bellini Italy
Phoenix is ecstatic to get this guy here. He's pretty much a Manu Ginobli. I can see him going a lot higher. They could also go with Rudy Fernandez, whom I can't tell the difference from anyways. Either way they get a versatile SG who can handle the ball well and shoot the ball as well. Sounds like their types of players.

25. Utah SF Derrick Byars Vanderbilt
Jazz apparently want a wing who can shoot, and play some defense. This could be Rudy Fernandez, or it could be Jared Dudley. I hope Dudley doesn't get this high, because I hope the Sonics could get him, but if Byars fell to us it wouldn't be so bad. Alondo Tucker would also fit Utah's search.

26. Houston PF Glen Davis LSU
Apparently Houston will probably take Glen Davis or Nick Fazekas (assuming McRoberts isn't available. I actually think Davis could be good. He tested out to be 6'9" with only 11% body fat. The one thing that worries me is that he was dominated when he played Washington, because Brockman, despite being 40 pounds less, was outmuscling him. He is quick for a big dude though, and he is a pretty tenacious rebounder. If Houston has to pick a PF, this isn't a bad pick.

27. Detroit SF Jared Dudley Boston College
Dudley seems thuggish enough for Boston College. He plays good defense and has a good outside shot. He's also strong enough to bang with the big boys outside. Detroit tends to make odd first picks like the Knicks, so it might work out. I think Dudley will be a great player, and I wish he'd fall to the Sonics.

28. San Antonio PG Petteri Koponen Finland
What can I say, he's only 19, and he's torn it up in the past year in international play, and in workouts against American prospects. I like this kid a lot, and wouldn't mind if the Sonics traded their 2 2nd round picks to get him. Hopefully they get Zabian Dowdell.

29. Phoenix PF Tiago Splitter Brazil
They already got their swing man in Bellini, so they go after a international big. It's between Splitter and Fesenko from Ukraine, so I say they go after the more NBA ready one in Splitter. Splitter has been a "potential lottery pick" for the last 4 or so years, so I'm a littler weary of him. Mobile 7 footers don't fall from trees though, so he could be a good bench player for the Suns.

30. Philadelphia C Kyle Visser Vanderbilt
He didn't get above 17 minute a game until his senior season, but got 17 and 7 with 1.4 blocks in a pretty tough ACC (some would say elite but that's really only reserved for the Pac 10). Anyways, Philly addressed their needs with McRoberts and Young, so they could go with a C here or just fill best available need. I see them getting a center.

Round 2

1. Sonics SG Marcus Williams Arizona
Sonics get Seattle Native from Roosevelt High. Williams definitely has the talent, but it remains to be seen if he has the focus or the drive. He looked talented enough to be a multi-all-star in the NBA but we'll see. He's got height at 6-7, above average athleticism, shooting, and dribbling, and the Sonics do need a backup swingman because Damien Wilkins is overrated. I wouldn't mind Rudy Fernandez here or Arron Afflalo. I know Afflalo wold be a great bench player, and he'd play great defense while being able to shoot a spot up J. He also showed he can be a leader, and take over at the ends of games when he has to.

2. Boston SF Demetrius Nichols Syracuse
Boston doesn't have anyone that can shoot besides Wally, so this would be a nice pick. Not much to say about him except he shoots a lot and he shoots real well, though it only seems that he's been a lights out shooter his senior year.

3. San Antonio SG Arron Afflalo UCLA
Afflalo seems like their kind of guy. Since I keep comparing him to Bruce Bowen, and Bowen is getting older, it'd only make sense for them to get him. They could got with an international big and stash him overseas though.

4. Mavericks SG Rudy Fernandez Spain
Too much talent, and they need a better SG since Terry is not a real one, and is being used as trade bait right now.

5. Seattle PG Ramon Sessions Nevada
This is assuming we trade one of our PG. We would need a backup PG and Sessions is good, he isn't too athletic, but he isn't turnover prone, a fairly good shooter, and isn't a ball hog. I would love Zabian Dowdell as well, as he is 6-3 with a 6-10 wingspan. Also, like Sessions he has performed well in the Orlando pre-draft Camp. Jared Jordan is also interesting, he put up monster stats at Marist (17 pts 6 rebs 8.7 assists). He's not athletic at all, and isn't a great shooter, but he seems to have a level head, and is doing well in NBA pre-draft camp as well. Aaron Brooks, Taurean Green, and Mustafa Shakur might also get looks.
If we don't need a backup PG, defensive SF's like Alondo Tucker, Reyshawn Terry, Carl Landry, Marc Gasol, Kyrylo Fesenko (hey, we can't go a draft without getting a 19/20 year old foreign center) might be options to consider.

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