Mariners fans seems to be split 80 20. 80% saying that Bavasi is an idiot and 20% saying that Bavasi has made some good moves in a market gone crazy. Because of these moves, 50% of fans say that to have any chance of being a competitive team, we need to sign Barry Zito, the only big name left on the market to give us 2 "ace" pitchers. The other 50% say that giving Zito the amount of years, or the $16 million plus in salary is a waste and a better deal will be around next year. Almost 100% of the fans, however, agree that something should have been done before this, and that having Zito shouldn't be our only option left to salvage the offseason.
Hindsight:
Remember when everyone was shocked at how much Matsuzaka's bid was for? Before the bidding started, people were astounded at the possible $30 million dollar posting fee, and it went to $50 million. With Boras's unreasonable demands that Matsuzaka be paid like a free agent at around 7 years and $100+ million dollars (2 years and roughly 25 million more than Roy Oswalt, arguably a perennial top 5 pitcher) people were hesitant to jump into the bidding. The Mariners were supposed to be the front runner, but for some reason, either the money or the disrespect the Mariners' FO or owners felt they were receiving, the M's decided to forego putting a real bid and go after more reliable proven starters who had played Major League players on a consistent basis. Well, the Red Sox showed everyone by paying Matsuzaka $50 million for 6 years, for a total cost of $103 or so million dollars for 6 years. This is about $17 million a year which is about what Zito is supposedly getting paid. Looks like the Red Sox did their homework because that's a STEAL. I'd gladly pay that on the open market for him because he'll bring in so much extra revenue from new fans, fan mania, and Japanese tourism. Not only this, but I'd be willing to bet against 3:1 odds that Matsuzaka outperforms Zito, and I'm one of the few people who thinks that Zito will bounce back and perform well in the next 6 years. An acquisition like Matsuzaka can turn around a lot, it can save the Mariners franchise, restore attendance to 2001 status, and possible cement Ichiro's status as a Mariner for life.
Obviously another mistake was Igawa, whom I refer to mini-Matsuzaka. He's not a power guy, and he's a lefty, so they're not too similar, but they're both fairly young, and they both have really good japanese league stats. Here are Igawa's stats (http://www.japaneseballplayers.com/en/player.php?id=igawa) and here are Matsuzaka's (http://www.japaneseballplayers.com/en/player.php?id=matsuzaka). Matsuzaka is basically a 15 win, 200k, 2.5 ERA guy (only 140 games in the Japanese leagues) while Igawa is an almost equally impressive 15 wins, 160k, 3 ERA guy. Igawa was posted for $26 million, which again, at first seemed atrocious, but then was signed to a 5 year $20 million dollar contract. This comes to roughly $9 million a year for a pitcher who was the MVP of the central league in 2003, and with the market value of other pitchers, I'd rather pay that for a guy who'll bring more fans then a Vicente Padilla.
Ok Ok, you're saying yeah yeah, everyone knows about the Japanese guys, but what else could the M's have done. Well Freddy Garcia was traded for 3 prospects, and while Gio Gonzalez and Gavin Floyd are good prospects, I think the White Sox just wanted to get rid of their extra starter to lower payroll. Gio Gonzalez is a good prospect, the 38th pick overall in the 2004 draft, and he was a traded by the White Sox to get Thome before. He's 21, and in double A this year he got 166 k's in 155 innings along with 81 BB's and 24 HR's allowed. I don't know much about the park he pitches in, so I can't tell if he's serves up a gopher ball a lot or not, but he clearly has stuff. His ERA was only 4.66, but he seems to be a low Grade A prospect that hasn't really fulfilled his potential, but could. In 2004, Baseball America rated him the White Sox 7th best prospect, with the best curveball in the organization (excluding major league players). To put this in perspective, at the time, Brendan McCarthy was rated 3rd on the list, and he is now the 5th starter now that Garcia is gone, and Chris Young, was rated the 6th best prospect, and he was traded away from Javy Vazquez, and he is apparently tearing things up and is a can't miss OF prospect who was ranked as the best athlete and fastest base runner at the time.
Gavin Floyd was a 4th overall pick in the 2001 amateur draft, and is almost 24. He has shown flashes of brilliance in the major leagues, but has a career ERA of 6.96 so far. He lacks the control that he needs and hasn't shown that he can make the next jump. He pitched 115 innings in Triple A Scranton and had a 7-4 record with a 4.23 ERA. At his age, he should start dominanting triple A.
Anyways, what was the point in all this? The point was that the Mariners could have traded some of their excess products like Jeremy Reed, Ben Broussard, Rafael Soriano, and maybe an enticing prospect such as Jeff Clement for a starting pitcher such as Freddy Garcia, or maybe even Mark Buehrle. The White Sox might not want all these players, but packaging them up with perhaps a few more prospects should do the trick. Buehrle had a 5 ERA with a 1.45 WHIP, 200+ IP, and 100 K's, and his contract pays hims $8 million a year. Freddy Garcia had a 4.5 ERA witha 1.28 WHIP, 200+ IP, and 135 K's, and his contract pays him $9 million dollars. It's pretty much a toss-up between the two, and because Buehrle is a lefty, and Ozzie Guillen is probably more partial to Venezuelans, Buehrle might be easier to get. Gillick probably just wanted Freddy Garcia to unite him with Moyer and Franklin.
Another target who would be good for our excess lineup and prospects would have been Jason Jennings, a guy the Mariners were targeting. I figure that that package I made up is about as good as Willy Taveras, Taylor Buchholz, and Jason Hirsch. Taveras is a more established Reed, but his upside isn't more. Buchholz is a fring starter who could be good. Hirsch is a good prospect who is a little old, but was rated by Mariners scouts after Jon Papelbon, Jon Lester, Adam Jones, and Phillip Hughes before 2006 season started, but before Anthony Reyes, Bobby Jenks, and Gio Gonzalez.
Anyways, I love the Jose Guillen move because it gives us little risk with the short term contract and the team option, but a lot of reward because he's showed that he can be a plus defender, and a plus average and power hitter. The Batista signing is fine, but wouldn't be necessary because we would already have 5 pitchers. If payroll was too high, we could always trade away Sexson and get some prospects back, but here is my 2007 Mariners lineup if everything had went right.
2007 Lineup: 2007 Pitching:
C Johjima 5.2 Mil Matsuzaka 17 Mil
1B Sexson 14 Mil Igawa 9 Mil
2B Lopez .4 Mil Felix .4 Mil
SS Betancourt .4 Mil Buehrle 8 Mil
3B Beltre 13 Mil Washburn 10 Mil
LF Snelling .4 Mil
CF Ichiro 11 Mil Bullpen:
RF Guillen 5 Mil CP Putz 2.5 Mil
DH Ibanez 5.5Mil SU Sherrill .4 Mil
Bench: SU Huber .4 Mil
C Quiroz .4 Mil MRP Mateo 1 Mil
1b/3b Dobbs .4 Mil MRP O'Flaherty .4 Mil
CI/OF Morse .4 Mil LRP Baek .4 Mil
UTIL Bloomquist 1 Mil LRP Woods .4 Mil
Battting: 57.1 Mil Pitching: 49.9 Mil
Total: 106 Million
Summary:
I know, 106 million dollars! That's a lot of money. I have three things to say. One, the expectations would be so great that the ticket sales would be incredible. Posting fees aren't always included in payrolls. The Mariners have been one of the most, if not, the most profitable team in baseball in the last few years. I haven't won a Seattle professional male championship in my lifetime, and if it means cutting into profit (which if the owners sold the Mariners they would make a huge profit off of that anyways), then so be it. Give one of the most loyal and best fans what they deserve. We aren't Yankee fans, we don't boo A-Rod because he slumps a bit for a month. We're not Philly fans, we don't boo for no reasons. We're not Red Sox fans, we don't say that one championship is all we need, and then bitch and moan about not winning the next season, we're Mariners fans, we're graetful to be part of the 90's Mariners with some of the best talents ever and some class act Mariners guys, and glad to be part of the 2000's Mariners with the beginning of Ichiro and tying the major league record for wins. Give us a championship. Even though this was an outrageous market, we still could have made do and gotten a championship team, all we needed was guts, and a a willingness to think outside the box and get creative.
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